[Data] The profit of the automobile industry is divided in 10 years.

What impact will new technology have on the automotive industry? "Wolf is coming" has been shouting for a long time, but is the automaker still the dominant force in the future auto industry? There is currently no quantitative conclusion. However, a few days ago the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) gave a report stating that by 2035, the three new travel technologies of electrified, self-driving cars and shared travel will divide 40% of the profits of the automotive industry, including traditional parts. The traditional profit pool of supply, hybrid electric vehicle sales, auto finance and the aftermarket will reduce its share of the auto industry's profits from 99% in 2017 to 60%. That is to say, the profits in the traditional automobile industry chain will be reduced by more than 2% per year.

Behind the volatility of profits will be a historic change in global auto consumption. According to BCG estimates, due to the consumption trends in China and other developing markets, global new car sales will be watershed in 2025, stop growing sharply, and the popularity of electric vehicles and unmanned shared vehicles will push the sales of new cars to stop growing. The profit growth of the automotive industry will continue until 2035.

As the fastest-growing region for new travel technology, China will play a decisive role in this revolution in the global automotive industry. Therefore, the survival status of OEM (automakers) manufacturers in China will also be more significantly affected. Xu Gang, partner and managing director of BCG, said: "In the next 15 years, OEMs will find their competitive position threatened by new challengers, including suppliers, on-demand travel platforms and technology giants, as well as cities in traffic. Travel is playing an increasingly active role."

In response to this report, the newly released Chinese listed company's third-quarter earnings report shows that the new energy sector and the smart car sector are showing signs in the stratification in the case of weak domestic automobile consumption and plunging of listed companies. A huge upside for the company. Listed companies such as Ningde era (79.43 +1.21%, diagnostic stock), NavInfo (16.05 -1.17%, diagnostic stock), and Junsheng Electronics (23.06 -0.43%, diagnostic stock) all achieved net profit while accelerating business investment. Rapid growth.

“It is an indisputable fact that the profit source of the entire automobile industry will change greatly in the next 10 to 15 years.” The report pointed out that “the traditional automobile industry participants cannot have a wrong sense of security for the future development of the market.”

"outsiders" began to carve the profits of the automotive industry

The data released by BCG is realistic. In 2017, the share of emerging profit pools (including parts for self-driving cars and pure electric vehicles, pure electric vehicle sales, data and intelligent network links, and on-demand travel) in the automotive industry’s profits It is only 1%, but will grow rapidly after that until it reaches 40% in 2035.

Correspondingly, investment opportunities in emerging technology sectors will continue to expand. BCG predicts that from now until 2030, the investment in new growth will exceed 900 billion US dollars, and by 2035 it will exceed 2.4 trillion US dollars, of which the total investment of autonomous vehicle technology will reach 45 billion US dollars, accounting for OEMs accumulate 1.7% of research and development expenses. Second, the cumulative investment in charging infrastructure is expected to reach $130 billion, "this is equivalent to 40% of the total German federal government budget in 2017." In addition, by 2035, the industry is expected to spend $1.8 trillion to produce 72 million self-driving taxis. According to the report, this will create an important investment opportunity for cities including public transport management, car rental companies, OEMs and banks or institutional investors.

From now on, the industrial chain of new energy vehicles has gradually formed, and battery companies and new powertrain suppliers have begun to divide the new profit pool. The BCG report pointed out that China is starting to compete in this competition for the emerging profit pool. In terms of sales of electric vehicle batteries, total number of on-demand trips and new capacity of new energy batteries in 2017, China ranked first in the world, showing a strong start.

In contrast, although the autopilot is in its infancy, the profit generation ability of the relevant industry chain has not yet appeared. However, from the current state of investment funds, this sector will become the largest under the new technological revolution in the automotive industry. Beneficiary.

In the latest three-quarter earnings report, as the main supplier of car navigation and high-precision maps, the net profit of the first three quarters increased by 38.38% year-on-year, and the performance was higher than expected. The increase was due to the increase in automotive electronics chips and navigation revenue. NavInfo proposed the “Smart Car Brain” strategy in 2017 to provide solutions for autonomous driving. At present, its three main product navigation, chip and car networking accounted for 42% of revenue in the first half of 2018. 28%, 24%, revenue growth rate of 4.4%, 73.7%, 13%, chip business growth is rapid; from the gross profit margin, respectively, 97%, 59%, 59%, respectively, an increase of 1.60, - 1.47%, 5.06%. The profitability of the Internet of Vehicles has grown significantly.

Similarly, Junsheng Electronics, which is simultaneously active in the new energy sector and the smart driving sector, has been affected by the acquisition of Takada Airbags, but maintained a high growth rate of 47.12% in the first three quarters. Recently, Junsheng Puri Smart Car Alliance, which is owned by Joyson Electronics, signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Zebra Networks, which was jointly invested by SAIC and Alibaba, to expand Internet vehicles.

Say goodbye to the era of high profits

“Traditional OEMs and suppliers are now laying the groundwork to ensure that the company can thrive in future markets,” said Xu Gang, managing partner and managing director of BCG.

BCG's risk warning for OEMs is based on an assessment of future travel consumption. According to the report, in terms of cost, the annual battery cost will be reduced by 5% per year in the future, and the cost of parts for self-driving cars will be reduced by 12% per year. This will promote the rapid spread of new technologies. By 2030, about half of the new cars sold worldwide will be electric vehicles (including pure electric vehicles and hybrids), and one-tenth are self-driving cars. In addition, shared on-demand travel will account for nearly 10% of passenger mileage (mainly driven by self-driving electric vehicles).

Correspondingly, the value creation of the automotive industry will also shift from OEM to supplier. By 2030, OEM's share of the value of each auto component will drop to 15%, which is closer than 2015 (27%). half. In addition, OEM new cars will be sold more to large car rental companies. Although such companies have shorter replacement cycles, they will still reduce sales and prices will be lower. On the other hand, overcapacity will lead to fuel vehicles. The profit will decrease, and the post-market will also decline in profits due to lower maintenance demand for electric vehicles.

Thomas Palme, one of the report's authors and BCG's managing director, said: "OEMs face a double challenge. They have to face the continuous decline in core business profit margins and invest in new growth areas. The profit of electric vehicles is significantly lower than that of fuel vehicles. There are many other factors that combine to put more pressure on OEM cash flow.” Xu Yang, managing partner and managing director of BCG, said, “The OEM is currently doing three things, slimming, investing in new business and Business Transformation."

In fact, although traditional vehicle companies still emphasize their dominance in the face of competition from new technology companies, the sense of crisis has spread since a few years ago. The layout for new travel modes in the future has already begun. At present, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen, Toyota and other car giants have also launched research and development and investment layout in the battery and electronic control core technology fields, and participated in the mastery of technology. In addition, in the past two years, automakers' acquisitions of technology companies, hardware manufacturers, data providers and other related companies in the autopilot industry chain have been on the rise. Industry alliances consisting of vehicle manufacturers and component assembly giants are also being generated.

“Chinese local companies are in a good position to compete for new profit pools. Local companies are building strong local new energy auto parts suppliers and pure electric vehicle OEM ecosystems, and already have strong travel service infrastructure.” BCG report said . “But Chinese auto companies need more investment and become more agile. The entire industry needs to accelerate the development of autonomous driving capabilities, and traditional automakers should clearly define ways and means to participate in new competition and develop strategies.”

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